OxCARRE Seminar: Thorvaldor Gylfason - The Dutch disease in reverse. Iceland's natural experiment

Today presenting at OxCARRE: Thorvaldor Gylfason (University of Iceland)

The Dutch disease in reverse: Iceland's natural experiment.

Abstract

Abundant natural resources brought Iceland a systemically overvalued currency, with adverse effects on the secondary tradable sector. During 2003-2008 another national treasure, the sovereign’s AAA rating, was used to attract foreign capital, elevating the real exchange rate even further. The financial collapse in 2008 left the country with a large foreign debt without the possibility of rollovers in international capital markets. This offset some of the effect of the natural resources on the real exchange rate; in effect, this was the Dutch disease in reverse as witnessed, in particular, by a massive increase in the number of tourists in recent years.