The development implications of the fracking revolution

ODI WP:  The primary objective of this report is to examine the economic impacts (actual and potential) on developing countries of current transformations in global energy markets associated with the growth in exploitation of shale gas and tight oil. We have already seen large changes in energy markets; e.g. US oil imports from Africa have dropped significantly and US gas imports have collapsed over the last 5–10 years, as tight oil and shale gas production in the US have increased. We estimate that US imports of oil and gas may have been 50% lower as a result of fracking in 2012. As a result of fracking in the future, Chinese imports of gas could be 30–40% lower in 2020. In the case of a reduction in US gas imports, our analysis suggests that Trinidad and Tobago would suffer export revenue loss equivalent to more than 3% of GDP, and other countries affected include Yemen, Egypt, Qatar, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Algeria, Peru. In total, developing countries are estimated to have lost US$1.5 billion in annual gas export revenues because of the rise in fracking...