The Political Economics of the Arab Spring

New OxCarre WP: The Arab Spring has led to very di fferent outcomes across the Arab world. I present a highly stylized model of the Arab Spring to better understand these di fferences. In this model, dictators from the ethnic or religious majority group concede power if their country is oil-poor, but can stay in power by bribing the people if their country is oil-rich. Dictators from the minority group often rely on other members of their group to repress protests and to fight the majority group if necessary. These predictions are consistent with observed outcomes in Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and elsewhere.