What It Will Take to Counter Extremism and Engage Americans in the Fight against Global Warming

Skocpol: The only way to counter such right-wing elite and popular forces is to build a broad popular movement to tackle climate change. Ways must be found to use policy ideas as tools to knit-together inside-outside links among many organizations, including some that can draw masses of ordinary citizens into the transition to a green economy...

Confl‡ict, Climate and Cells

Harari and La Ferrara: We conduct a geographically and temporally disaggregated empirical analysis of civil confl‡ict at the sub-national level in Africa over the period 1997-2006. Our units of observation are cells of 1 degree of latitude by 1 degree of longitude. We exploit within-year variation in the timing of weather shocks and in the growing season of different crops, as well as spatial variation in crop cover, to construct an original measure of shocks that are relevant for agricultural production. Employing a new draught index we show that negative climate shocks which occur during the growing season of the main crops cultivated in the cell have a sizeable effect on confl‡ict incidence. This effect is persistent over time and to a lesser extent in space. We also use state-of-the-art spatial econometric techniques to test for the presence of temporal and spatial spillovers in confl‡ict, and we fi…nd both to be sizeable and highly statistically signi…ficant. Exploiting variation in the type of confl‡ict episode, we …nd that the impact of climate shocks on confl‡ict is particularly signi…ficant when focusing on outcomes such a rebel recruitment.

Monetary policy and the oil futures market

Bundesbank WP: We assess the transmission of monetary policy shocks on oil prices using a VAR model. We identify monetary policy and fi nancial activity shocks disentangled from demand and oil supply shocks using sign restrictions. We obtain the following main fi ndings. (i) Monetary policy and financial activity shocks both have a signi ficant e ffect on the oil price. (ii) Monetary policy has made large positive contributions to oil price growth in 2008. (iii) Monetary policy aff ects the oil price primarily through fundamental (supply and demand) channels rather than through financial activity.

ANALYSIS OF THE IRAN OIL EMBARGO

EU Report: On 23 January 2012 EU foreign ministers decided to ban new contracts to import oil and petroleum products from Iran and to end existing contracts by 1 July 2012 as part of a diplomatic strategy aimed at raising the cost of Iran‟s defiance of the international community over its nuclear program. Other countries such as the US are also preparing to sanction Iran‟s crude oil exports. Iran has responded by threatening to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the world‟s most important oil choke point; about 35 percent of seaborne traded oil moves through the Strait...

The Economist on climate change

Two articles this week. One that says domestic laws, not a global treaty, are the way to fight global warming. Another that soot is even worse for the climate than was previously thought.

The Energy-Policy Efficiency Gap: Was There Ever Support for Gasoline Taxes?

NBER WP: From 1864 to 1972, the real price of oil fell by, on average, over one percent per year. This trend dramatically broke when prices for crude increased by over 650 percent from 1972 to 1980. Policy makers adopted several policies designed to keep oil prices in check and reduce consumption. Missing from these policies were taxes on either oil or gasoline, prompting a long economics literature documenting the inefficiencies of these alternative policies. In this paper, I review the policy discussion related to the transportation sector that occurred during the time through the lens of the printed press. In doing so, I pay particular attention to whether gasoline taxes were "on the table," as well as how consumers viewed the inefficient set of policies that were ultimately adopted. The discussions at the time suggest that meaningful changes in gasoline taxes were on the table; the public discussion seemed to be much greater than it is today. Some in Congress and many presidential advisors in the Nixon, Ford, and, Carter administrations supported and proposed gasoline taxes. The main roadblocks for taxes were Congress and the American people. Polling evidence at the time suggests that consumers preferred price controls and rationing and vehicle taxes over higher gasoline taxes or letting gasoline prices clear the market. Given the saliency of rationing and vehicle taxes, it seems difficult to argue that these alternative polices were adopted because they hide their true costs.

Nigeria's Illegal Oil Refineries

Amazing pics from The Atlantic: Reuters photographer Akintunde Akinleye recently gained rare access to an illegal oil refinery near the river Nun in Nigeria's oil state of Bayelsa. There, he was able to document the secret and dangerous practice of oil bunkering, where locals hack into oil pipelines, steal the crude oil, and refine or sell it abroad. For over 50 years now, crude oil and natural gas have been extracted from the Niger Delta by large corporations, which have had their share of environmental disasters. The ongoing damage from the tapped pipes and these makeshift refineries continue to take a terrible toll on the environment and the local population.